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Weekly Summary

LNG: Apr 15-19: Rises on Middle East tension

--DES Northeast Asia

In the DES Northeast Asia market last week, front month delivery rose around $11.20-11.50, hitting a 3.5-month high as a prompt delivery. In the wake of intensifying tension in the Middle East, supply concerns for LNG from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have grown.

An explosion occurred in Isfahan, located in mid-Iran, on Apr 19. Israel allegedly launched missiles to attack Iran, but at the same time, Iran denied the information, saying their air defense system operated; thus, the information has been mixed. In response to the explosion news, crude prices surged by more than $3 once, bringing a huge impact on energy markets. Regarding LNG markets, "Of course, both prices and supply/demand balance are affected, but to what extent depends on the Netherlands' TTF market," said a broker. A Japanese company pointed out, "At present, it is difficult to seize the overall picture, including the damage to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. At this moment, the market appears to react instinctively, causing too much concern. If we capture a clear picture, the market will calm down."

Production troubles at the 15.00 mil mt/year US Freeport project have tightened a supply/demand balance in Europe as well, growing bullish sentiments in the market worldwide.

Seeing the rise in prices, Chinese players consider reselling cargo. UBS, a major bank in Switzerland, revised China's GDP in 2024 upward from 4.6% to 4.9%, but there has been no sign of demand strengthening from the industrial sector so far. China currently prioritizes consuming domestic gas as well as pipeline gas imported from Central Asia and Russia, limiting the need for LNG.

 

--FOB Middle East, DES South Asia and the Middle East

Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Co (EGAS) chartered in the 170,000cbm TFDE tanker "Hoegh Galleon" to use as a floating storage regasification unit (FSRU). The "Hoegh Galleon" was previously chartered by US ExxonMobil for 10 days in March and was scheduled to be deployed at the Port Kembla terminal, which Squadron Energy was constructing in the east coast of Australia, in the future. The terminal was expected to start operations from winter 2025 onwards.

 

--FOB Atlantic, DES Europe and South America

In Chile, where copper is a core industry, demand for gas might increase along with strong copper prices. Copper prices in Apr have been hovering at around $9,500, the highest since Jun 2022.The 3.75 mil mt/year Quitero terminal and the 1.50 mil mt/year Mejillones terminal were originally introduced in Chile to provide power and gas to the local copper mines and smelters. As for the the 15.00 mil mt/year US Freeport project project, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality announced that it fined Freeport LNG, the operator of the project, $152,173 since Freeport LNG had violated state air pollution emissions rules for 2019 and 2021.

 

Tokyo : LNG Team  Yamamoto   +81-3-3552-2411Copyright © RIM Intelligence Co. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.