According to Sinopec, in 2023, China's crude oil processing capacity was 920 million tons/year, with an annual processing volume of 735 million tons. China will keep the processing capacity of crude oil at 1 billion tons/year. It is expected that demand for oil products will peak in 2027-2028.
In 2023, China's total ethylene production capacity was 51.32 million tons/year, accounting for 23% of the world's total production capacity, and the production was 44.1 million tons. It is expected that China's ethylene production capacity will reach 66 million tons/year by 2025 and 95 million tons/year by 2030. Based on an average annual demand growth rate of 3%, it is expected that China's ethylene equivalent demand will be about 75 million tons by 2030. Based on an operating rate of 80%, China's ethylene supply in 2030 will be 76 million tons and its supply/demand of ethylene is basically balanced.
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